Today is Monday, January 12, 2026.
The Early Bird Index today is 85.97.
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Stock Market Roadmap 2026
Considering the macroeconomic landscape, will investors face a bull or bear market in 2026? Find out by listening to investment experts in a new episode of the Early Bird podcast.
The Bull Case: If the stock market outperforms expectations in 2026, it will likely be due to lower interest rates boosting momentum and middle-class consumers increasing their spending compared to the previous year. The state of deregulation in Washington could also factor in.
Earnings growth expectations are high this year (nearing 15%!), and if stocks can actually do that, they might grow into their high valuations.
The Bear Case: If the stock market underperforms expectations in 2026, there could be multiple reasons. There are growing uncertainties everywhere.
Unemployment could rise in 2026, particularly as companies use artificial intelligence as an excuse to lay off employees.
The changing face of leadership in the U.S. Federal Reserve could also be a problem. If the Fed is too aggressive in cutting rates, it could cause fear to fester in the markets. Lower rates could potentially hurt consumer spending.
And then there are geopolitical concerns, including tariff costs being passed onto consumers in 2026.
Final Thoughts: Based on the macro conditions, what are some good under-the-radar investments in 2026 - no matter how the market performs? Find out by listening to a new episode of the Early Bird podcast.
Last Time the Market Was This Expensive, Investors Waited 14 Years to Break Even
In 1999, the S&P 500 peaked. Then it took 14 years to gradually recover by 2013.
Today? Goldman Sachs sounds crazy forecasting 3% returns for 2024 to 2034.
But we’re currently seeing the highest price for the S&P 500 compared to earnings since the dot-com boom.
So, maybe that’s why they’re not alone; Vanguard projects about 5%.
In fact, now just about everything seems priced near all time highs. Equities, gold, crypto, etc.
But billionaires have long diversified a slice of their portfolios with one asset class that is poised to rebound.
It’s post war and contemporary art.
Sounds crazy, but over 70,000 investors have followed suit since 2019—with Masterworks.
You can invest in shares of artworks featuring Banksy, Basquiat, Picasso, and more.
24 exits later, results speak for themselves: net annualized returns like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8%.*
My subscribers can skip the waitlist.
*Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.
Notables
Notable Earnings Today: Sify Technologies (Nasdaq: SIFY).
Notable IPOs Today: Crane Harbor Acquisition Corp. II Class A Ordinary Shares (Nasdaq: CRAN).
Notable Equity Crowdfunding Campaigns Ending Today: N/A.
Notable Economic Events Today: N/A.
Walmart Expands Drone Delivery
Gif by Flytrex-Aviation on Giphy
Walmart $WMT ( ▲ 2.09% ) announced on Sunday that it is expanding its drone delivery service through its partnership with Wing, a subsidiary of Google parent Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▼ 0.29% ).
Details: The service will expand to an additional 150 Walmart stores over the next year. There are plans to have a network of over 270 drone delivery locations in 2027 in new hubs such as Los Angeles, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Miami.
Background: Walmart started offering this drone service in 2022 in select regions.
Bigger Picture: Drone delivery is slowly increasing in popularity as new laws make it easier for companies to roll out this service.
Final Thoughts: Walmart’s stock is up about 25% in the past year.
Monero’s Early January Surge
The price of the cryptocurrency Monero $XMR ( ▲ 27.13% ) surged 18% on Sunday and hit an all-time high.
Details: Monero is up as part of a broader “privacy trade” rotation and renewed interest in privacy‑focused crypto after a strong 2025.
Final Thoughts: Monero is starting January on a strong note. It is up 34% in the new year.
Trends to Watch
Unavoidable: Abivax CEO Says Big Pharma Can’t Ignore Its Experimental Drug (Bloomberg)
Staying Stable: JPMorgan downplays stablecoin threat as local bankers warn of $6.6 trillion risk (CoinDesk)
Political Intimidation: Fed Chair Powell says he’s under criminal investigation, won’t bow to Trump intimidation (CNBC)
Happy Travels: Allegiant to buy Sun Country in $1.5B deal reshaping budget travel (USA Today)
Ugly Meme Coin Year: Memecoins hit hardest in rough year that saw 11.6M tokens fail (Cointelegraph)
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The contents of Early Bird are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. They do not constitute trade or investment recommendations, and they are not financial or legal advice. Readers are encouraged to consult licensed professionals for personalized guidance regarding their financial or legal situations.
